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    March 27, 2014

    Today's market Commentary
    10 am EDT, pricing is set

    Mortgage bond prices remain higher mid-morning Friday erasing the losses seen Thursday afternoon. Rates are finding support from weaker than expected GDP data.

    The economy grew at 2.2% in the last quarter of 2014. That data was weaker than the growth rate of 2.4% economists were expecting. Most market participants, including Fed members, believe economic expansion in the Q1 2015 slowed to near unchanged. That is a repeat of last year where the economy actually contracted in the first quarter. Some blame goes to the weather in both instances. Lets hope the economy continues to expand, create jobs and more consumer consumption. The consumer accounts for roughly 2/3‚??s of economic activity in the US.

    Consumer confidence printed at 93, near expectations for a read of 92. Consumer confidence is important to traders because a confident consumer is more likely to spend vs. save, which helps the economy grow.

    With no more news or events on tap today traders will watch stocks. At the 10 am ET price point the Dow was up 23 points.

    Federal Reserve Chairperson Janet Yellen speaks in San Francisco at the Federal Reserve Bank conference. Her comments begin at 3:45 pm EDT and may cause some late day volatility. Members of the Fed committee have been talking up a rate hike when they spoke this week. There is a debate among market participants on how valid Mrs. Yellen‚??s vow to be data dependent are. Some believe a rate hike will occur regardless of data, others believe that the first rate hike will happen late in 2015 or even 2016. We believe it would not be prudent for the Fed to raise rates until the economy is on solid footing with rising inflation and strong wage growth.

    Event Calendar:
    Monday, Mar 23, 2015
    Existing Home Sales @ 10 am et

    Tuesday, Mar 24, 2015
    Consumer Price Index @ 8:30 am et

    Tuesday, Mar 24, 2015
    New Home Sales @ 10am et

    Tuesday, Mar 24, 2015
    2Y Treasury Note Auction @ 1:15 pm et

    Wednesday, Mar 25, 2015
    Durable Goods Orders @ 8:30 am et

    Wednesday, Mar 25, 2015
    5Y Treasury Note Auction @ 1:15pm et

    Thursday, Mar 26, 2015
    Weekly Jobless Claims @ 8:30 am et

    Thursday, Mar 26, 2015
    7Y Treasury Note Auction @ 1:15 pm et

    Friday, Mar 27, 2015
    Q4 GDP Revision @ 8:30 am et

    Friday, Mar 27, 2015
    U of Michigan Consumer Sentiment @ 10 am et


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