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    September 23rd, 2016

    Today's market Commentary

    Mortgage bond prices closed near the levels seen at 10 am et holding mortgage rates unchanged from pricing this morning.

    New home sales data will be released Monday before lenders set pricing. Next week has three Treasury auctions starting Monday with the sale of 2-year notes. Data of importance next week includes consumer confidence, durable goods, income, outlays and core PCE inflation. Core PCE inflation is the FedÔ??s preferred inflation index.

    The Federal Reserve has a dual mandate from Congress, full employment and price stability. Full employment is an unemployment rate where anyone that wants a job has one. Price stability implies avoiding both prolonged inflation and deflation. With the unemployment rate running below 5% the full employment mandate seems to have been met. What is missing is price stability. The Fed would like to see an inflation rate of 2%, which has been elusive. Europe is currently battling deflation, a prolonged period of falling prices. Deflation can be devastating because consumers will delay purchases waiting for a lower price in the future. That creates a vicious cycle that can be difficult to break.

    An expanding economy creates inflation and would fulfill the Fed second mandate. Currently the economy is growing at a rate of 1.1% despite historically low interest rates, full employment and cheap gas prices. The Fed has predicted for years that GDP would increase only to see subpar results. The economic collapse of 2008 and the Great Recession that followed seems to have forever changed things. Consumers are using the savings from refinancing mortgages and cheap gas to pay off debt and save for a rainy day. The consumer accounts for 67% of GDP and the change in spending habits seems to restraining the overall economy. Welcome to the new normal as we like to say.
    Event Calendar:
    Monday, Aug 29, 2016
    Personal Income and Outlays @ 8:30 am et

    Monday, Aug 29, 2016
    Monday, Sep 26, 2016
    New Home Sales @ 10 am et

    Monday, Sep 26, 2016
    2-year note auction @ 1:15 pm et

    Tuesday, Sep 27, 2016
    Consumer Confidence @ 10 am ET

    Tuesday, Sep 27, 2016
    5-year note auction @ 1:15 pm et

    Wednesday, Sep 28, 2016
    Durable Goods Orders @ 8:30 am et

    Wednesday, Sep 28, 2016
    7-year note auction @ 1:15 pm ET

    Thursday, Sep 29, 2016
    Q2 GDP Third Estimate @ 8:30 am et

    Thursday, Sep 29, 2016
    Weekly Jobless Claims @ 8:30 am ET

    Friday, Sep 30, 2016
    Personal Income and Outlays @ 8:30 am et

    Friday, Sep 30, 2016
    PCE Core Inflation @ 8:30 am et

    Friday, Sep 30, 2016
    U of Michigan Consumer Sentiment @ 10 am ET

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